Landscape dynamics and disturbance regimes

Damage caused by extreme storms (e.g., Vivian/Wiebke) and bark beetle infestations in Germany’s Bavarian Forest National Park have led to a raised awareness of the important role of natural disturbance for Central European forest dynamics. Climatic change may exacerbate the impacts of natural disturbances on forest dynamics in the future, and recent studies predict not only an increase in temperature and precipitation in Central Europe, but also a greater frequency of extreme temperature and precipitation events. Because natural disturbance cycles are closely linked to climatic conditions and weather patterns, the question arises what impacts these changes will have on forest dynamics.

The goals of our research are to understand the processes underlying large-scale disturbances processes, and to help forest managers to make informed decisions. To this end, we analyze records of disturbance damage using statistical methods, and we develop and apply dynamic simulation models.